EUR/USD
A permanent research workspace for the world's most actively traded currency pair, organised around relative policy, growth, inflation and observable price structure.
Three branches. No forecast.
Fill these branches with dated evidence before viewing the outcome. If none completes, the result is no trade.
Euro leadership is confirmed
The relative policy or growth impulse turns in favour of the euro and price accepts above a pre-declared higher-timeframe boundary.
Evidence required: A dated macro catalyst or measurable change in the relative-rate narrative; A closed-bar structure break followed by acceptance or a tested retest rule; No unresolved high-impact event inside the planned holding window.
Invalidation: The relative evidence reverses or price closes back through the level that defined acceptance. A brief intrabar excursion is not enough unless the rule said it was.
Relative evidence stays balanced
ECB and Fed expectations move together, surprises are mixed and price remains inside an established range. The correct output may be observation rather than exposure.
Evidence required: No persistent change in the relative policy path; Repeated failure to hold outside the declared range; Risk and reward compressed by nearby opposing structure.
Invalidation: A material relative catalyst and confirmed range acceptance replace the balanced state. The scenario is retired, not silently relabelled.
Dollar leadership is confirmed
The US relative-rate or growth impulse strengthens, euro-area risk increases, and price accepts below a pre-declared structural boundary.
Evidence required: Evidence that the change is relative, not merely a weak euro or strong dollar headline; A repeatable lower-acceptance or failed-retest condition; Room to the next support after costs and the planned invalidation.
Invalidation: Price regains and holds the broken boundary or the supporting relative-rate thesis materially weakens.
Know what the chart actually measures.
EUR/USD rises when one euro buys more US dollars. A bullish chart view is therefore long euro and short dollar; a bearish view is the reverse.
The pair is a relative price. Strong euro-area data can fail to lift EUR/USD when US expectations improve by more, while weak US data can have little effect when the surprise was already priced.
Liquidity is commonly deepest during the London session and the London-New York overlap, but spreads and slippage can still widen around releases, fixes, holidays and rollover.
Facts before interpretation.
Give every observation a source, timestamp and job. A narrative is not independent confirmation when each item was inferred from the same price move.
Compare the expected ECB and Federal Reserve paths rather than one policy rate in isolation. Record the observation date and whether the evidence comes from decisions, projections, market pricing or commentary.
Track surprises in euro-area and US inflation, wages, activity and labour data. Separate the published level from the change versus consensus and from revisions.
Check rate differentials, broad dollar behaviour and whether European risk assets confirm or contradict the FX move. Correlation is context, not an entry trigger.
Mark the higher-timeframe range, prior swing points, session extremes and the level that would falsify the structure label. Do this before opening a lower timeframe.
Events change the distribution, not the rule.
Check the official calendar before analysis and again before execution. Record the expected release time and timezone; actual releases, revisions and press conferences can arrive on different schedules.
- ECB and Federal Reserve decisions, projections, minutes and press conferences
- Euro-area and US inflation, wage, employment and activity releases
- Changes in expected real-rate and nominal-rate differentials
- European political or fiscal risk that changes the risk premium
- Month-end flows, major option expiries and thin holiday liquidity
A valid conclusion can be “stand aside.”
Scenario invalidation and position risk are different. Invalidation says the idea is no longer supported; position size controls what that error may cost. Do not move one to repair the other.
- The pair is centred inside the working range and neither side offers a rule-defined invalidation.
- ECB or Fed risk falls inside the holding window and the strategy has not been tested through that event type.
- The chart feed, release time or timezone cannot be verified.
- Several USD positions would turn a small EUR/USD idea into excessive portfolio-level dollar exposure.
Timestamp the work before the next candle.
This is an evergreen research framework, not a current market call. It is reviewed when market mechanics, benchmark construction or the source set changes, and at least quarterly while the hub is active. Any dated study must state its data cutoff, chart source and timezone separately.
Review the record. Never rewrite it.
The archive is intentionally empty until a dated, source-labelled study is frozen. Future entries should move through draft, frozen, observed and reviewed states. A correction appends a note; it does not replace the original thesis.
- Save the untouched pre-event chart, data cutoff and all three scenarios.
- Record which condition appeared first and whether it was executable after spread and slippage.
- Score thesis quality separately from trade outcome and execution quality.
- Keep failed and no-trade studies searchable; do not archive only attractive examples.
Model the ways a correct idea can still lose.
- Gap and slippage risk around central-bank decisions and major releases
- Correlated exposure through other USD or EUR positions
- Headline reversals and revised economic data
- Financing and rollover effects for multi-day positions
Verify the contract specification, pip or point value, minimum size, margin, financing and stop behaviour with the actual provider before using any calculator output.
Start with the publisher.
These links provide calendars, policy documents, benchmark definitions or statistics. They do not endorse WickAtlas, and they do not supply a trading signal.