Weekly swing breakout
Tests slow breakouts above or below pre-existing weekly structure.
Keep the chart simple
What needs to be in place first
- Swing algorithm and minimum age are fixed
- Weekly close convention is consistent
- Portfolio currency exposure is checked
See weekly swing breakout from both sides
Choose a direction and follow the chart from setup to entry, stop and planned exit. The method stays the same; only the directional comparisons reverse.
Entry is above the trigger, invalidation is below the setup and a profit exit is above the entry.
- EEntryLONG ENTRY / MONDAY OPEN
- SStop / risk limitLONG STOP / BREAKOUT LOW BUFFER
- XExitEXIT / OPPOSITE SWING CLOSE
The two-left/two-right swing level is available only after its confirmation week. A qualifying Friday close, controlled candle range and acceptable Monday gap lead to entry; the stop sits 0.25 weekly ATR below the breakout-week low and the planned exit follows an opposite confirmed swing close.
A visually obvious pivot with fewer than two completed right-hand weeks is still unavailable and cannot qualify this long breakout.Check the market first
Long: the weekly close is at least 0.10 × weekly ATR above the last confirmed swing high; reverse for short.
Wait for the entry rule
Enter at Monday 00:00 UTC after the qualifying Friday close, provided the opening gap is no greater than 0.50 × weekly ATR.
Place the stop before entry
Stop 0.25 × weekly ATR beyond the breakout candle's opposite extreme. Risk 0.35% equity and round down to 0.01 lot.
Know how the trade ends
Exit at the Monday open following the first weekly close through the most recent confirmed opposite-side swing; initial stop remains active.
Worked example: confirmed weekly swing close breakout
This version of Weekly swing breakout chooses one answer for every decision so you can repeat it. Treat the settings as a starting point to test, not as proven or recommended parameters.
EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY and AUD/USD; weekly candles ending Friday 21:00 UTC; both directions.
A weekly swing uses two candles on each side and therefore becomes available two weekly closes late.
One open weekly breakout per currency; no duplicated USD-direction exposure.
Mark confirmed two-left/two-right weekly swing highs and lows.
Add Wilder weekly ATR(14) and plot the immediately preceding confirmed swing level.
Use Friday 21:00 UTC boundaries consistently; do not substitute broker Sunday candles.
Give every tool one job
Direction, timing, volatility and risk are different questions. This stack assigns them rather than asking one indicator to do everything.
Define levels that genuinely predate the breakout and the trailing exit.
Scales the close-through threshold, candle filter, gap rule and stop buffer.
Prevents several pair positions from disguising one concentrated currency bet.
- Long: the weekly close is at least 0.10 × weekly ATR above the last confirmed swing high; reverse for short.
- The breakout candle range is no more than 1.75 × weekly ATR.
- No position uses either currency and planned stop risk remains within the 0.75% total weekly-breakout cap.
Enter at Monday 00:00 UTC after the qualifying Friday close, provided the opening gap is no greater than 0.50 × weekly ATR.
Stop 0.25 × weekly ATR beyond the breakout candle's opposite extreme. Risk 0.35% equity and round down to 0.01 lot.
Exit at the Monday open following the first weekly close through the most recent confirmed opposite-side swing; initial stop remains active.
Cancel on an excessive breakout candle, excessive Monday gap, portfolio-currency conflict or incomplete weekly data.
Use a constant 1.5-pip spread, 0.5-pip adverse slippage on entry and exit, zero commission and a frozen 0.5-pip daily rollover charge.
Move through the chart one decision at a time
- Week −4: level becomes known
A 1.1000 swing high is confirmed only after two later weekly candles close; timestamp that confirmation, not the pivot week.
- Week −1: approach
Price remains below 1.1000. Weekly ATR is 200 pips, making the required close-through 20 pips.
- Friday: qualify
The week closes at 1.1030 with a range below 1.75 ATR and no portfolio-currency conflict.
- Monday: gap check
The market opens at 1.1040, only 10 pips above Friday and within the 100-pip maximum; enter after frozen costs.
- Monday: protect
Set stop 0.25 weekly ATR beyond the breakout-week low and size the wide stop to just 0.35% equity risk.
- Later weeks: exit
Hold until stop or a weekly close through the latest confirmed opposite swing, then execute at the following Monday open.
A rejected example
Reject a close above an apparent weekly swing that has only one right-hand candle. The level is still unconfirmed and would leak future information.
Common variations
- Separate variant only: previous 52-week high/low rather than confirmed pivots.
- Separate variant only: fixed 26-week holding period.
- Separate variant only: weekly Donchian exit.
Rebuild this method on the platform you use
The written rules work independently of the charting app. Match the same feed, timeframe, indicator settings and completed-candle timing before comparing results.
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Keep every test organised.
The CSV gives you one place to record the setup, costs, execution, outcome and whether you followed your rules.
Download test-plan CSV ↓