Trading leveraged FX and CFDs is high risk and can result in rapid losses. Read the risk notice

EXPECTANCY CALCULATOR

Win rate needs a payoff.

Combine win rate, average win, average loss and sample size to estimate expectancy per trade and the breakeven win rate.

CALCULATOR / 03EXPECTANCY

Risk/reward expectancy

Test whether an assumed win rate and average payoff produce positive expectancy before costs. Use realised averages, not the planned target.

WIN RATE %AVERAGE WIN (R)AVERAGE LOSS (R)SAMPLE TRADES

EXPECTANCY / TRADE+0.26R

BREAKEVEN WIN RATE35.7%

Arithmetic mean over 100 trades: +26.0R. Real outcomes vary by sequence, costs, missed trades and changing market conditions.

PUT THE NUMBER IN CONTEXT

Define invalidation, portfolio exposure, daily stop conditions and what would pause the strategy before placing a trade.