CONTINUATION PATTERN
Cup and handle
A rounded recovery followed by a smaller consolidation near the prior high.
Rules visible before the outcome
- Rounded rather than V-shaped recovery
- Return near the prior rim
- Handle retraces a limited portion of the cup
02 / CONFIRMATION
When the idea becomes eligible
A close above the rim with a predefined buffer.
03 / INVALIDATION
What proves it wrong
Below handle structure or a deeper cup threshold.
The attractive mistake
Long durations and subjective curvature make selection bias likely.
Make it falsifiable
Define the curve, depth and handle numerically before searching history.
1Freeze the geometry
2Timestamp eligibility
3Count every outcome
4Test unseen data