FAILED BREAKOUT PATTERN
Liquidity sweep
A breach of a visible boundary followed by rejection back through it.
Rules visible before the outcome
- Boundary existed before the breach
- Price trades beyond it by a minimum amount
- Close or later bar returns inside
02 / CONFIRMATION
When the idea becomes eligible
The return close, displacement, or a lower-timeframe structure rule.
03 / INVALIDATION
What proves it wrong
Acceptance beyond the swept extreme.
The attractive mistake
The liquidity narrative is not directly observable from candles alone.
Make it falsifiable
Use the neutral term failed breakout and compare session, news and range-age buckets.
1Freeze the geometry
2Timestamp eligibility
3Count every outcome
4Test unseen data