EXHAUSTION PATTERN
Three drives
Three measured pushes in one direction with intervening corrections.
Rules visible before the outcome
- Three new directional extremes
- Comparable drive lengths or declared ratios
- Momentum behaviour is measured, not eyeballed
02 / CONFIRMATION
When the idea becomes eligible
A structural break after the third drive.
03 / INVALIDATION
What proves it wrong
Continuation beyond the final extreme by the chosen buffer.
The attractive mistake
Strong trends can keep making drives; exhaustion is not guaranteed.
Make it falsifiable
Compare reversal and continuation outcomes after the third extreme.
1Freeze the geometry
2Timestamp eligibility
3Count every outcome
4Test unseen data